I have been rarely playing the prediction game in the past, but now that Red Hat finally seems to fulfill my old predictions – also in the cloud – it is time to join Bob Sutor and others to play again.
Open Source and the Cloud.
Open source is now the maturity phase, and it is interesting to look at how compares open source and cloud computing (courtesy of Google Insight for search).
But the open source world is not so small, looking at the same graph for different European countries makes a difference. While France looks at the cloud as much as North-Americans do, other countries (like Italy) are lagging behind (see also EC2 statistics).
Open source vendors playing in the cloud arena are growing in number, probably in 2011 others will come, but only who will be able to nurture its community has good chance to be a winner in 2012. Among interesting players I didn’t mention before I would definitely enlist Cfengine and OpenStack.
OpenOffice.org will probably be back in 2011. I expect Oracle to revitalize the OpenOffice.org community this year, probably focusing on enterprise-users. LibreOffice’s community will likely overcome its organizational issues in 2011. Novell might quit its involvment and LibreOffice would need at least a large sponsorship to fund new developments.