Dana Blankenhorn’s blog post “Open Source still not the first option” says that established markets are the natural fit for open source, while new markets are usually served by proprietary solutions first.
Low-end market disruption - actually occurring when technology advances faster than customers’ needs (e.g. MySQL vs Oracle, Alfresco vs Filenet) - happens in the first stages of maturity in open source adoption, while sustaining innovation probably happens at a later stage.

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